Russian expert Vassily Kashin foresees a war between the United States and China in the East Pacific within the next six years out of which Beijing will emerge victorious due to America’s inability to fund its expanding empire.
“It’s highly probable that China, after the completion of the current cycle of reforming and rearming its armed forces through 2020, will be capable of defeating US forces and its allies in the course of any local conflict in the east part of the Pacific Ocean,”
writes Kashin in an editorial for the Voice of Russia.
Kashin is Senior Research Fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. The Voice of Russia is an international radio broadcasting service controlled by the Kremlin.
Noting that the US Army’s Air Sea Battle concept is designed to counteract efforts by China and Iran to prevent the build-up of US forces in the eastern Pacific Ocean, Kashin adds that,
“China will be able to launch a massive highly accurate non-nuclear strike against US facilities used by transportation and military infrastructure in the region by reducing abruptly the speed of building up American forces.”
Although such an effort will require a huge outlay by Beijing, Kashin notes that America’s “internal crisis and dearth of funds,” in addition to inferior allies in the region such as Japan and South Korea, will assure military victory for China. European allies will not want to become embroiled, forcing America to “accept defeat,” writes Kashin.
“An attempt to punish China and edge it from occupied positions after a Chinese victory will have already taken place would mean the entering of the lengthy conflict with a great foreign power – for the first time since the Korean War.”
The need to commit more resources to a new region, allied with budgetary problems, will precipitate a weakening of the United States’ military presence in other areas of the world such as the Middle East, causing “significant consequences for global politics and security,” writes Kashin.
Kashin’s dire forecast dovetails with innumerable examples of Beijing’s increasingly aggressive military rhetoric that have emerged in recent weeks.
In October, China sent a surveillance ship to Hawaiian waters for the very first time in an unprecedented move which was described as a provocative retaliation to the U.S. naval presence in the East China Sea.
A lengthy editorial which appeared in Chinese state media last week explained how the Chinese military’s current reformation process was part of a move by President Xi Jinping to prepare the People’s Liberation Army for war in response to US aggression in the Asia-Pacific, developments which have prompted “major changes” in China’s national security situation.
Strident rhetoric about Beijing’s ability to attack US military bases in the Western Pacific, as well as the release of a map showing the locations of major U.S. cities and how they would be affected by a nuclear strike launched from the PLA’s strategic submarine force also turned heads.
Following discussion in the state media about plans to turn the moon into a Star Wars-style “death star” from which the PLA could launch missiles against any target on Earth, a display to promote China’s Jade Rabbit Moon rover also included a background photograph of a mushroom cloud over Europe.